Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Welcome to your daily email edition of TV Media Insights, your one-stop destination for everything television: ratings, observations, scheduling, breaking news, casting information, trends, trivia, facts, figures, winners and losers, historical data…and much more. We will begin each day with the overnight (metered market) ratings in our network section, taking you through the prior evening results and whetting your appetite for the fast affiliate ratings, which will be posted at our TV Media Insights forum (www.tvmediainsights.com) by 12 p.m. ET. Next is the news of note in cable, followed by syndication, on the air options, our daily trivia question, and much more.

TV Media Insights is an interactive franchise, where your voice is important to us. So, make sure you send in your questions, comments and trivia answers to marc@tvmediainsights.com.

Now, on your mark, get set…go.

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NETWORK

Metered Market Ratings – Monday 9/05/11

ABC Wins Holiday Evening

Household Rating/Share

ABC: 3.9/ 6

Fox: 3.3/ 5

CBS: 2.9/ 5

NBC: 2.7/ 4

CW: 0.5/ 1

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-Note: Comparisons to the year-ago evening are not available today.

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-Countdown to the Start of the New TV Season: 13 days

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-Winners:

Bachelor Pad (ABC), Hell’s Kitchen (Fox)

-Losers:

Nothing. We do not include repeats and 69 percent of last night’s line-up was encore telecasts.

“Winners” and “Losers” take the following benchmarks into consideration:

Competition
Lead-in (if available)
Prior time period average
Expected results when the fast affiliate results arrive (which are demo specific)
Target demographic
Lead-out (if available)
Quality of the content
The buzz factor (if any)
Age of series
The time of year the show is airing

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-Ratings Analysis:

Yesterday, of course, was Labor Day, so there was no reason to anticipate any stellar rating results. That said, ABC led the holiday troops with its combination of two-hours of Bachelor Pad (4.4 rating/7 share from 8-10 p.m.) and a repeat of Castle (#1: 3.1/ 5). Comparably, ABC’s advantage over second-place Fox was six-tenths of a rating point. But Fox’s combination of a repeat of Hell’s Kitchen (#3: 2.3/ 4) and an original installment of Hell’s Kitchen (#2: 4.3/ 7) could make the race for first among adults 18-49 a close call.

Note: The fast affiliate results (which include adults 18-49) will be posted at the TV Media Insights Forum by 12 p.m. ET.

Third overall was CBS with its encore combination of two episodes of How I Met Your Mother (#3, avg. 2.5/ 4 from 8-9 p.m.), Two and a Half Men (#3: 3.4/ 5), Mike & Molly (#3: 3.4/ 5) and Hawaii Five-O (#2t, 2.7/ 5). Next was NBC care of a two-hour repeat installment of America’s Got Talent (2.7/ 5/ 4 from 8-10 p.m.) and 10 p.m. special, Children of 9/11 (#2t: 2.7/ 5). And The CW capped off the evening with repeats of relocated Gossip Girl (#5: 0.5/ 1) and One Tree Hill (#5: 0.4/ 1), which is heading to the midseason bench in place of new drama Hart of Dixie, which launches on Sept. 26.

Source: Nielsen Media Research data

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Handicapping the New Fall Series – ABC’s Last Man Standing, Man Up, Suburgatory, Revenge

To get you ready for the start of the 2011-12 TV season we will handicap the odds for each new series on a scale of 1-1 (the best) to 10-1 (the worst). Bear in mind, of course, that the success rate of any new series is normally no greater than one out of three. And this new crop of entries – 14 dramas, 11 sitcoms, 2 non-scripted – is nothing extraordinary, unfortunately. Most likely to succeed: The X Factor on Fox, which reunites Simon Cowell and Paula Abdul, and CBS sitcom 2 Broke Girls, which is positioned well out of How I Met Your Mother and into Two and a Half Men. Even in this increasingly scattered environment, time period is still the most pivotal ingredient. Also keep a positive eye on ABC’s Suburgatory, CBS’ Person of Interest, NBC’s Whitney and Prime Suspect, Fox’s New Girl, and The Secret Circle on The CW.

To begin, lets head to ABC, which will introduce seven new series. Today we will feature sitcoms Last Man Standing, Man Up and Suburgatory, and new drama Revenge.

Last Man Standing (ABC) – Tuesday 8 p.m.

Former Home Improvement star Tim Allen is back as a so-called manly man working at a sporting goods store with wife who is now a top corporate executive, and two daughters.

-The Competition: NCIS (CBS), The Biggest Loser (NBC), Glee (Fox), 90210 (CW)

Once a staple of its line-up in the 1980s, ABC is expanding to a second night of comedies anchored by one of its biggest stars from yesteryear, Tim Allen. But does Last Man Standing have the chops to be the next Home Improvement? With competing NCIS on CBS a magnet for total viewers (expect in the 20-million range) and Fox’s Glee still a young adult demo favorite, patience will have to be a virtue at ABC for Last Man Standing to make it past season one. Keep the expectations low.

-Chance of Survival for Last Man Standing (Based on 1-1 to 10-1 odds);

5-1

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Man Up (ABC) – Tuesday 8:30 p.m.

Three modern day men search for their identities and try to prove that there is also a sensitive family-driven side to “real men.” Mather Zickel, Christopher Moynihan, Henry Simmons and Teri Polo star.

-Lead-In: Last Man Standing

-The Competition: CIS (CBS), The Biggest Loser (NBC), Glee (Fox), 90210 (CW)

The success, or lack of, for Man Up will depend on the lead-in support out of Last Man Standing. If it works, Man Up has a better shot to succeed. And if it doesn’t, Man Up may be belly up by midseason. Since NCIS is known to add additional viewers in the second half-hour, consider that another obstacle for Man Up to face.

-Chance of Survival for Man Up (Based on 1-1 to 10-1 odds);

6-1

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Suburgatory (ABC) – Wednesday 8:30 p.m.

A New York City based single father (Jeremy Sisto) raising a sixteen year old girl (Jane Levy) heads to the suburbs, where life is not as innocent and simple as he thinks.

-Lead-In: The Middle

-The Competition: Survivor: Nicaragua (CBS), Free Agents (NBC), The X Factor (Fox), H8R (CW)

Out of The Middle and into Modern Family, Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. on ABC is what you would call a potentially advantageous time period. But facing the battle of the reality competitions, Survivor versus The X Factor, will be no easy feat and recent freshman entry Better With You did not make it into a second season. For promising looking Suburgatory to succeed, retention out of The Middle needs to be in the vicinity of 85 percent. Consider that a good possibility.

-Chance of Survival for Suburgatory (Based on 1-1 to 10-1 odds);

4-1

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Revenge (ABC) – Wednesday 10 p.m.

Set in the Hamptons and described as a modern day retelling of The Count of Monte Cristo from a female perspective, a beautiful young woman (Emily VanCamp) goes on a mission to seek revenge on the people who took everything from her years earlier.

-Lead-In: Happy Endings

-The Competition: CSI (CBS), Law & Order: SVU (NBC)

Opposite Law & Order: SVU and relocated CSI, ABC was wise to counter-program with a drama outside of the conventional crime solving vein. But both long-in-the-tooth competitors still have an audience, younger skewing lead-in Happy Endings is weak, and ABC has struggled for years to program the Wednesday 10 p.m. time period. Remember Off the Map, The Whole Truth, Happy Town, Eastwick, The Unusuals, Life on Mars and Dirty Sexy Money? While the intentions are good, the likelihood of the atypical Revenge succeeding is slim to none.

-Chance of Survival for Revenge (Based on 1-1 to 10-1 odds);

9-1

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NETWORK SHORT ITEMS

Eddie Murphy in Talks to Host The Oscars

The upcoming 84^th Annual Academy Awards could have a new host: Eddie Murphy. Talks are in progress for the actor, comedian and former Saturday Night Live star to host the festivities, which air live on ABC on Sunday, Feb. 26, 2012. Anyone would be an improvement, no doubt, over the recent pairing of Anne Hathaway and James Franco.

Fox Pushes Back Start Date for I Hate My Teenage Daughter

Upcoming Fox comedy I Hate My Teenage Daughter, the tale of two women (Jaime Pressly and Katie Finneran) who realize their children have turned out to be the same type of unlikable wretches that made high school insufferable, will now premiere on Wednesday, Nov. 30 at 9:30 p.m. It leads out of highly anticipated The X Factor and was supposed to debut one week earlier.

Univision Announces Fall Schedule

Univision has unveiled its upcoming fall line-up, which will feature a three hour telenovela rotation — Cuando Me Enamoro (Timeless Love), Teresa and La Fuerza (The Power of Destiny) — populating the Monday to Friday 7-10 p.m. block. The 10 p.m. weeknight hour will feature a rotation of different product (Don Francisco Presenta – Monday, Aqui y Ahora – Tuesday, La Rosa De Guadalupe – Wednesday, Mujeres Asesinas – Thursday and La Rosa De Guadalupe – Friday), while Saturday will be populated with variety-driven Sabado Gigante. Sundays will house the second seasons of dance competition Mira Quien Baila! and entertainment newsmagazine Sal y Pimienta.

Also on tap on Univision this fall are a number of primetime specials, including The 12^th Annual Latin Grammy Awards on Nov. 10. And the morning will feature Despierta America (Wake Up America) Live From Miami every weekday from 7-10:30 a.m. ET/PT, followed by lifestyle magazine Hoy from 10:30 a.m. to 12 p.m. ET/PT.

Here is Univision’s primetime line-up this fall:

Monday

7:00 p.m.: Cuando Me Enamoro (Timeless Love)

8:00 p.m.: Teresa