Quote from jmartin07 on August 9, 2012, 18:00
· NBC’s Wednesday 11:06-11:30 p.m. ET preview of “Go On” following primetime Olympic coverage generated strong sampling for the new series, averaging a 5.6 rating in adults 18-49 and 16.1 million viewers overall, according to “fast official” ratings from Nielsen Media Research.
In my opinion, it’s still great for NBC and Go On. A 5.6 is still something NBC should press release and NBC can rest easier knowing that the Olympic preview worked for at least Go On.
In the daily ratings game, I predicted 15.05 million and a 6.0 demo for Go On. So Go On did better in viewers but worse in the demos than I expected. With the main goal being sampling, NBC will probably take the extra viewers. Ratings historically indicate that with bigger events, a successful show launch should expect a 50% to 60% retention. Anything above that is extraordinary and anything below that is concerning.
In 2008, the closing ceremonies pulled in 27.7 million in viewers, 13% increase from 2004. So if we see another 13% increase, Animal Practice is looking at a 31.3 million lead in. I think that a good number for Animal Practice would be 14 to 16 million in viewership, depending on how high the increase is from 2008′s ratings. If it does that or better, then NBC should be content. If the lead in drops, then expectations would have to be lessened.
I really like Guys With Kids getting the America’s Got Talent lead in. It’s not as strong as having The Olympics as a platform but there’s a solid family audience that watches talent shows and this show will probably appeal to that group the most. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 67% retention, which is higher than we saw for Go On and will very likely see with Animal Practice but more in line with the retention that we would see with a solid, but not a blockbuster lead in.
The New Normal is interesting because it stands by itself. However, I do think that it’s a concept that can self start. The better Go On does in September, the more it will benefit.